Forecast skill
Is the blend better than every individual model? Matured forecasts are verified against gridded observations (ERA5 temperature and wind, GPM IMERG rainfall) by lead time, region, season and weather regime.
Blend RMSE
0 verification samples
Best single model
Improvement (all India)
vs best single model
Best model changes with conditions
win at least one lead time
Which model is best when?
Rainfall RMSE (mm / 24 h) by lead time; best single model highlighted. The winner changes, which is why a fixed choice or a plain average is not enough.
Blend gain by lead time
RMSE reduction vs the best single model at each lead, All India domain
Daily RMSE
Root-mean-square error per model, all lead times
RMSE by model
All India domain, last 30 days
Lead-time performance
RMSE vs forecast lead time
Event scores
ETS, CSI and POD (higher is better); FAR (lower is better) at the variable's event threshold
GFS GEFS ECMWF AIFS Blended